Federal Reserve Bank of New York  Staff Reports.  The Effects of Policy Guidance on Perceptions of the Fed’s Reaction Function. Katherine Femia, Steven Friedman, Brian Sack.  Staff Report No. 652,
November 2013.

“This paper explores the market reaction to the forward guidance that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), has provided about the  federal funds rate, with particular focus on the use of calendar dates and economic thresholds in the  FOMC statement. We investigate whether shifts in the calendar-date guidance conveyed information  about the FOMC’s reaction function (that is, the way in which the Committee adjusts policy in response  to a given change in macroeconomic conditions) or simply information about prospects for the economy  itself. We also assess how the perceived reaction function that was reached under calendar guidance  compared to the more explicit guidance that the FOMC provided through the use of economic thresholds.”