“The global economy is experiencing a strong slowdown, driven largely by the emergence of a serious recession in almost all advanced economies. The output estimates for European countries are adjusted downward on an almost daily basis, and Europe is expected to contract at -2.5 percent on average in 2009. In Japan, the contraction may be as large as -5 percent. While output in the United States is also forecast to shrink at -2.6 percent, the country has a better chance of a moderate uptick in the second half of the year, as there will be some pent-up demand in consumption and inventories will shrink significantly. More important, the structural dynamics of the United States have a stronger ability to withstand the pressures of a longer-term, slow-growth environment.”
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