CRS Insight – Where Is the U.S. Economy Headed: Soft Landing, Hard Landing, or Stagflation?, June 28, 2022 : “The Economic Recovery So Far – The recovery from the 2020 recession was rapid through the first half of 2021, but the transition to moderate, sustainable economic growth has been choppy, with negative growth in the first quarter of 2022. Moreover, high inflation has complicated the path forward. Since March 2022, the annual change in the Consumer Price Index has been above 8%. To reduce inflation, the Federal Reserve (Fed) is raising the federal funds rate (a short-term interest rate) to reduce aggregate demand (total spending). Since March, the Fed has raised rates from a range of 0-0.25% to a range of 1.5-1.75%. This raises the question of how much demand needs to slow to restore low inflation. This Insight discusses three scenarios for what might come next—a soft landing, a hard landing, and stagflation.”