What is the economic outlook for OECD countries? An interim assessment. Pier Carlo Padoan, OECD Deputy Secretary-General and Chief Economist, March 29, 2012. “Growth is expected to be firmer through the first half of the year

• Short-term prospects have improved relative to the situation prevailing in late 2011, but indicators still suggest a fragile recovery. The forecasts for the first half of 2012 point to a decoupling of GDP growth between Canada and the United States on the one hand, and Europe on the other: Robust growth is projected for the former, whereas in Europe the outlook remains weak.
• In the United States growth prospects continue to firm. The rebound in equity prices, stronger consumer confidence, and growth in nonfarm payroll employment have lifted projected activity.
• Activity in Japan is projected to rebound strongly in the first quarter, thanks in part to firmer industrial production, which was adversely affected by external shocks in late 2011, and a weaker yen. Second quarter growth is projected to be more moderate.
• The situation for the three largest euro area countries in aggregate is expected to remain fragile, with negative growth projected for the first quarter of 2012 and a moderate rebound in the second quarter.
• Recent positive indicators suggest that activity in Germany may accelerate through the first half of the year. Activity in France is projected to be broadly flat. In Italy weak industrial production and household sentiment are suggestive of recession for the first two quarters of the year. That said, the most recent indicators have been more positive, resulting in slightly better projected growth for the second quarter.”
• Related postings on the financial system