FiveThirtyEight: “Here we are, almost eight months into this pandemic, and it’s like you can’t even invite more than 150 people to sit next to each other unmasked in your rose garden without it turning into a major superspreader event. The White House outbreak is now linked to at least 40 cases, including some that led to hospitalization. As autumn settles in and the holidays loom, it’s worth pausing to ponder what we’ve learned about COVID-19 transmission over the last few months. We’re now entering a time of year when many of us will want to bring our communities together, and when the cold and the dark can increase feelings of isolation. So how do we calculate our own personal risk, while also avoiding … shall we say, bad examples? Just what are we in for this winter, anyway?..”