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The composition of the unemployed and long-term unemployed in tough labor markets

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The composition of the unemployed and long-term unemployed in tough labor markets, by Sylvia Allegretto and Devon Lynch, Monthly Labor Review • October 2010.

  • “The article first examines the overall unemployment rate and the share of unemployment accounted for by long-term unemployment— henceforth, “the LTU share”—over time and in the context of recessions. The movements of the two series relative to each other, which have varied considerably over time, are discussed as well. Also, the changing trends in long-term unemployment during and after recessions are presented. Next, a detailed analysis of 2009 is presented; it is composed of two parts. The first reports unemployment rates and LTU shares by demographic and reveals the substantial variance in rates among demographic groups. Secondly, the article presents an analysis of the shares of the labor force, the unemployed, and the long-term unemployed accounted for by different demographic groups, industries, and occupational groups. Lastly, a historical assessment of recent recessions is presented through the lens of annual data for 1983, 1992, 2003, and 2009.3 The years 1983, 1992, and 2003 were post recessionary peaks in the LTU share, and 2009 is the most recent full year for which data are available to examine the effects of the 2007–09 recession; thus, data from these years arguably characterize the toughest labor markets over the last three decades.”
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