A systematic examination of reports of teacher vacancy and shortages: Teachers are critical for student learning. Recent news and policy reports suggest there are shortages of teachers in many parts of the country, and these shortages are detrimental for students and public education since these positions are either left unfilled or are filled with less qualified or uncertified candidates. In order to rigorously examine these issues, first we focus on vacant positions in a state: teaching positions that are left unfilled, even with emergency certification. We take this conservative approach to provide a lower bound on what teacher shortages look like in the United States. Next, we also consider teaching positions that are filled by teachers who are certified by irregular, provisional, temporary, or emergency certification, and teaching positions that are filled by teachers who are certified, but who are teaching in academic subject areas other than their area of preparation. In this updated version, to provide a more comprehensive picture of the factors contributing to teacher vacancy and underqualification, we have further included the current number of students in the state, the numbers of teachers who are enrolled in or completed teacher preparation programs, and the percent of teachers who are leaving the profession. Additionally, we estimate recent levels of teacher turnover and production using a forecast. Collectively, these data provide a comprehensive picture of the factors contributing to the teacher labor market. Based on data from the last few years, most states have more vacant positions and/or more underqualified teachers in the classroom than in previous years. We estimate there are at least 55,000 vacant positions and 270,000 underqualified positions. At the same time, we are seeing a decline or stagnation in enrollment for teacher certification programs for most states as well as a sharp increase in teachers leaving the profession in the last two years compared to the last decade. While the definition of a national teacher shortage continues, our results clearly indicate the majority of states are experiencing some degree of teacher shortages and teacher turnover surged during the pandemic with more teachers leaving the profession than ever before. We hope this work can be used to inform policymakers and researchers about the extent to which states are experiencing teacher shortages and what we can do to address this challenge for the future of public education.”
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