Billings, Bruce K. and Buslepp, William L., Strategic Management Guidance and Insider Trading Activities (March 12, 2015). Journal of Accounting and Public Policy, Forthcoming. Available for download at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2577600

“We assess whether managers engage in ex ante strategic behavior when issuing earnings forecasts in a novel context. We posit that some managers provide inaccurate downward guidance to increase the positive surprise and pricing premium at the earnings announcement, thereby maximizing profits from selling shares following the earnings announcement. In support, we document that managers are more likely to have issued prior inaccurate downward guidance when they sell more shares or increase their selling activities following the earnings announcement. Further, we show that these managers benefit economically by linking inaccurate downward guidance to greater pricing premiums at the earnings announcement date and more positive cumulative stock returns over the period from inaccurate downward guidance to subsequent earnings announcement.”