Under Current Law, What Is the Outlook for Overall Federal Deficits, Debt, Spending, and Revenues? – Presentation to the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research by Douglas W. Elmendorf, Director, CBO, May 13, 2014.

“By 2020, under current law: Federal spending for Social Security and the major health care programs will be roughly 50 percent larger relative to GDP than it has been, on average, during the past 40 years. Federal spending for all other programs taken together will be a smaller percentage of GDP than it has been in at least 70 years.”