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Revenues and Spending Under CBO's Extended Baseline Scenario and Two Alternatives Specified by Chairman Ryan

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Revenues and Spending Under CBO’s Extended Baseline Scenario and Two Alternatives Specified by Chairman Ryan, March 23, 2012

  • “Allowing changes that are scheduled under current law to take effect— including the expiration of tax cuts that originally went into effect in 2001 and 2003 — is one of many possible approaches for preventing deficits from growing in an unsustainable way. Under that approach, which is the assumption about future policy that underlies CBO’s baseline projections, federal revenues would increase sharply, and federal spending would be restrained somewhat relative to what would occur under current policies; both the revenues and spending of the federal government would be well above their historical averages as a share of GDP. Congressman Paul Ryan asked CBO to examine two other approaches: an across-the-board increase in income tax rates and an across-the-board reduction in spending other than that for health care entitlement programs. The former approach would require revenue increases even greater than those in CBO’s current-law baseline, and the latter would require very sharp cuts in other federal programs.”
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