“Dear Mr. Secretary: Since the Committee’s previous meeting in late October, credit conditions have remained uncertain and the outlook for the economy has become more negative. Expectations for growth in the first half of 2008 have fallen from 1.7% to 1.1% and two primary dealers now expect a recession as a base case for their economic outlook. Elsewhere the odds of a recession have varied between 30 and 50%. Housing continues to be a significant drag on the economy and, although that has largely been offset by a positive contribution from the improvement in the U.S. trade balance, the secondary risk of a drop in consumer spending, combined with some evidence of a weaker labor market, justify heightened concern about the growth outlook…”