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Report – Afghanistan: The Uncertain Economics of Transition

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Afghanistan: The Uncertain Economics of Transition by Anthony H. Cordesman, First Working Draft: April 18, 2012

  • “The economics of Afghanistan are only one aspect of the challenges posed by US, allied, and Afghan efforts to accomplish a successful Transition. There are many reasons that Transition will either fail or be determined by Afghanistan’s internal dynamics and the role of regional states regardless of what the US, Europe, and other aid donors do…There is only limited time for the US and its allies to deal with the economic problems in Transition. Moreover, if they are to have any chance of success, they need to address these economic problems as honestly and objectively as possible, admit how serious they are and admit how limited the progress has been to date. They also need to stop treating the economics of Afghanistan as if there are reliable data on the challenges involved, or even reliable data on basic economic measures like population and GDP. This means planning must concentrate on the art of the possible in terms of defining what military and civil aid can realistically do to achieve stability and securing Afghanistan between 2012 and 2020 in spite of the lack of adequate data for planning. It means looking far enough beyond 2014 to see what may be needed to ensure some form of stability, and to create an integrated civil-military approach that deals as honestly with the challenges involved as possible.”
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