The Job Impact of the American Recovery and Investment Plan, released January 10, 2009 – by Christina Romer and Jared Bernstein.

“A key goal enunciated by the President-Elect concerning the American Recovery and Reinvestment Plan is that it should save or create at least 3 million jobs by the end of 2010. For this reason, we have undertaken a preliminary analysis of the jobs effects of some of the prototypical recovery packages being discussed. Our analysis will surely evolve as we and other economists work further on this topic. The results will also change as the actual package parameters are determined in cooperation with the Congress. Nevertheless, this report suggests a methodology for ensuring that the package contains enough stimulus that we can have confidence that it will create sufficient jobs to meet the President-Elect’s goals.

This report also presents some discussion of the trade-offs involved in choosing different elements of the package. For example, how do tax cuts, fiscal relief to the states, and increases in infrastructure spending compare in terms of jobs created? Similarly, how do the different types of spending differ in terms of the timing of the jobs they will create? The report also discusses the types of jobs that will be created and the possible demographic composition of the workers who will find jobs as a result of the stimulus.”