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PBGC Releases Long-Term Projections, Forecasts Some Additional Plan Failures and Higher Deficits

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News release: “The Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation today released its long-term exposure report, which shows financial deterioration in some pension plans and increased deficits for PBGC.”

  • “Every year PBGC provides an actuarial evaluation of its expected operations and financial status. This report contains estimates and projections for both the single-employer and multiemployer programs over the next decade, including future position projections that offer a glimpse into subsequent decades. To project long-term exposure, PBGC uses two systems: the Single-Employer Pension Insurance Modeling System (SE-PIMS), and the Multiemployer Pension Insurance Modeling System (ME-PIMS). Each relies on running many simulations to derive a range of projected outcomes. The details of these models and how the simulations were run can be found in Appendix 1: Methodology, beginning on page 14.
    The results of the ME-PIMS simulations, summarized on page 4, deserve particular attention. Due to the deterioration in two large multiemployer plans, the projections show a 6.2 percent chance that the multiemployer program will be insolvent by 2020, and a 29.2 percent chance that it will be insolvent by 2030.”

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