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Obamacare Repeal Reconciliation Act of 2017 estimated to increase number of uninsured by 32 million

Follow up to previous posting of May 24, 2017 – CBO Analysis of American Health Care Act of 2017, on July 19, 2017 CBO the cost estimate on H.R. 1628, Obamacare Repeal Reconciliation Act of 2017: “CBO and JCT estimate that enacting this legislation would reduce federal deficits by $473 billion over the coming decade and increase the number of people who are uninsured by 32 million in 2026 relative to current law.” [emphasis added]

See also: “A new state-by-state analysis by the Kaiser Family Foundation examines federal Medicaid spending changes under the Better Care Reconciliation Act (BCRA), which would phase out enhanced Medicaid expansion funding and use an annual per enrollee cap on federal funds for most Medicaid enrollees in all states. The analysis finds federal spending would decline by $519.4 billion between 2020 and 2029, including reductions of $119.8 billion in California, $19.9 billion in Illinois, $11 billion in Indiana, $4.3 billion in Nevada, $3.4 billion in West Virginia and $1.2 billion in Maine.  The figures in the analysis, which assumes Medicaid expansion states keep their expansions, highlight how much of their own money states would need to spend to keep their Medicaid programs going at current levels in the face of the federal cuts. Of the $519.4 billion in federal Medicaid spending reductions, about $302 billion would be attributable to the phase-out of Medicaid expansion funding and $218 billion to the per enrollee caps. A second analysis finds that repealing the Affordable Care Act’s Medicaid expansion with no replacement plan – a straight repeal that would eliminate the statutory authority to cover childless adults as well as the enhanced federal funds to support the expansion – would result in reductions of federal Medicaid funding of $700.3 billion from 2020 to 2026 compared to what Medicaid expansion states would have received under current law. In 2026, the reduction to states would be $120.6 billion, and 17.6 million fewer people would have Medicaid coverage that year. Spending reductions per state range from $180.4 billion over the period in California to $1.4 billion in North Dakota, and include reductions of $25.9 billion in Kentucky, $8.6 billion in Nevada and $6.4 billion in West Virginia.”

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