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National Intelligence Assessment on the National Security Implications of Global Climate Change to 2030

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House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, House Select Committee on Energy Independence and Global Warming, 25 June 2008. National Intelligence Assessment on the National Security Implications of Global Climate Change to 2030. Statement for the Record of Dr. Thomas Fingar, Deputy Director of National Intelligence for Analysis and Chairman of the National Intelligence Council.

  • “We assess that climate change alone is unlikely to trigger state failure in any state out to 2030, but the impacts will worsen existing problems — such as poverty, social tensions, environmental degradation, ineffectual leadership, and weak political institutions. Climate change could threaten domestic stability in some states, potentially contributing to intra- or, less likely, interstate conflict, particularly over access to increasingly scarce water resources. We judge that economic migrants will perceive additional reasons to migrate because of harsh climates, both within nations and from disadvantaged to richer countries.”
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