The University of Maryland: “The map was created by Matt Fitzpatrick at the University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science and Robert Dunn of North Carolina State University [previously], who have also published an accompanying paper that details their methods for climate-analog mapping. In general, the closest analogs for future North American climates are to the south. But due to changing precipitation patterns significant eastward or westward shifts may also be involved. And for higher altitude cities, the nearest equivalent future climate may even exist to the north at lower elevations. The map and study look at two different scenarios: a business-as-usual future with no significant cuts to greenhouse gas emissions, and a moderate reduction in emissions as envisioned under the Paris Agreement.

“Under the business as usual emissions the average urban dweller is going to have to drive nearly 1,000 km to the south to find a climate like that expected in their home city by 2080,” said Fitzpatrick. “Not only is climate changing, but climates that don’t presently exist in North America will be prevalent in a lot of urban areas.”