Feuerriegel, Stefan and Wolff, Georg and Neumann, Dirk, Information Processing of Foreign Exchange News: Extending the Overshooting Model to Include Qualitative Information from News Sentiment (May 6, 2015). Available for download at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2603435

“In a globalized world, the volume of international trade is based on both import and export prices, thereby making a country’s economy highly dependent on exchange rates. In order to study exchange rate movements, one frequently exploits the so-called Dornbusch overshooting model. However, the model is controversial from a theoretical point of view: it presupposes the processing of information, though this is not directly reflected by the underlying variables. As a remedy, this paper investigates a potential information bias by including textual news content, thus adjusting for information dissemption. As such, we perform a multivariate analysis to compare the classical overshooting model with an extended variant that includes news sentiment. Our results show that news has a substantial explanatory power of 11% of the exchange rate forecasting error variance. In addition, we also find statistical evidence that a shock in news sentiment could lead to overshooting.”