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Global shocks to become more frequent, says OECD

OECD Reviews of Risk Management Policies – Future Global Shocks – Improving Risk Governance, June 2011

  • “This report on future global shocks begins the next phase of OECD reviews of risk management policies. In the wake of the 2008 financial crisis global leaders are acutely aware that another systemic shock could severely challenge economic recovery, social cohesion and even political stability. Visible indicators of vulnerability persist in the forms of economic imbalances, volatile commodity prices and currencies, colossal public debts and severe budget deficits. Quarterly indicators on economic recovery are closely scrutinised for signs of more chronic, structural weaknesses that place stress upon the social fabric, our final cushion of stability. Less visible than these metrics are the drivers of vulnerability that tightly weave interconnections between commercial supply chains, technological systems and investment vehicles underlying the global economy. Unanticipated events such as natural disasters, failures in key technical systems or malicious attacks could disrupt these complex systems and produce shocks that propagate around the world. There is a palpable sense of urgency to identify and assess risks arising from vulnerabilities in these crucial systems, and to develop policies that will bolster efforts for prevention, early warning and response to ensure sustained economic prosperity. This urgency explains the demand for OECD to deliver strategic advice on preparing for and responding to potential global shocks mired in uncertainties. While the list of potential global risks is quite long, this report focuses on a pressing shortlist, i.e. the relatively few that begin suddenly and result in severe, wide-scale disruptions or impacts.”
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