Joint Economic Committee: “As 2008 begins, many observers believe the U.S. economy will enter a recession. This belief intensified during the latter half of 2007 because of rising oil prices, a weakening housing market, and sluggish job numbers, despite strong quarterly GDP growth. Unfortunately, it is difficult to know with certainty if a recession will happen. But there are new techniques for assessing the probability of a recession that are more timely than the official assessment made by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). This paper reviews the new approach, known as a “recession probability index” and then applies it to key employment numbers.”