Climate Projections Based on Emissions Scenarios for Long-Lived and Short-Lived Radiatively Active Gases and Aerosols, U.S. Climate Change Science Program, Synthesis and Assessment Product 3.2, September 2008.

• “This U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) Synthesis and Assessment Product provides a different emphasis. We first examine the effect of long-lived greenhouse gases on the global climate based on updated emissions scenarios produced by another CCSP Synthesis and Assessment Product (SAP 2.1a). We next explicitly assess the effects of short-lived gases and particles. Their influence is found to be global in nature, substantial when compared with long-lived greenhouse gases, and potentially extending to the end of this century. They can significantly change the regional surface temperature, and by the year 2100 short-lived gases and particles may account for as much as 40 percent of the warming over the summertime continental United States. It is noteworthy that the simulated climate response to these pollutants is not confined to the geographical area where they are released. This implies a strong linkage between regional air quality control strategies and global climate change. We identify specific emissions reductions that would lead to benefits for both air quality and climate change mitigation, including North American surface transportation and Asian domestic fuel burning. The results reveal the necessity for explicit and consistent inclusion of the short-lived pollutants in assessments of future climate.”
• Related postings on global warming