CBO: An Analysis of the President's Budgetary Proposals for Fiscal Year 2011

Analysis of the President’s 2011 Budget, March 24, 2010

“Each year CBO estimates the budgetary impact of the proposals in the President’s budget using the same economic assumptions and estimating techniques that the agency uses to produce all of its analyses and cost estimates. Because CBO’s economic forecast and estimating techniques differ from those of the Administration, that “reestimate” of the President’s budget produces estimates of federal revenues, spending, deficits, and debt that differ from those presented in the budget itself. This report compares CBO’s projections with those of the Administration and with the benchmark figures in CBO’s baseline, which shows the budgetary outlook if current laws and policies remained unchanged. CBO’s use of a consistent methodology for all of these analyses and estimates allows direct comparisons between the Administration’s proposals and other options that are considered by the Congress during the legislative process.”

“The federal government would record deficits of $1.5 trillion in 2010 and $1.3 trillion in 2011. Those deficits would amount to 10.3 percent and 8.9 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), respectively. (The deficit in 2009 totaled 9.9 percent of GDP.) Compared with CBOs current-law baseline projections, deficits under the Presidents proposals would be about 2 percentage points of GDP higher in fiscal years 2011 and 2012, 1.3 percentage points greater in 2013, and above baseline levels by growing amounts thereafter. By 2020, the deficit would reach 5.6 percent of GDP, compared with 3.0 percent under CBOs baseline projections.”

New York Times: Social Security to See Payout Exceed Pay-In This Year with graphic – Shrinking Sooner Than Expected
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