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Stronger policy response needed to avoid risks to growth – OECD Economic Outlook

“25/11/2014- Modest global economic forecasts, continuing high unemployment, and downshifts in potential output should spur governments with a greater sense of urgency to fully employ monetary, fiscal and structural policy levers to support growth, notably in Europe, according to the Economic Outlook. The Economic Outlook draws attention to a global economy stuck in low gear, with growth in trade and investment under-performing historic averages and diverging demand patterns across countries and regions, both in advanced and emerging economies.   “We are far from being on the road to a healthy recovery. There is a growing risk of stagnation in the euro zone that could have impacts worldwide, while Japan has fallen into a technical recession,” OECD Secretary-General Angel Gurria said.  “Furthermore, diverging monetary policies could lead to greater financial volatility for emerging economies, many of which have accumulated high levels of debt.” (Read the speech). Global GDP growth is projected to reach a 3.3% rate in 2014 before accelerating to 3.7% in 2015 and 3.9% in 2016, according to the Outlook. This pace is modest compared with the pre-crisis period and somewhat below the long-term average…Large emerging economies are projected to show diverging performance over the coming years. A slowdown in China, towards more sustainable growth rates, will see GDP growth drop from a 7.3% growth rate in 2014 to a 7.1% rate in 2015 and a 6.9% rate in 2016. However, the rapid increase in credit, rising share of non-bank credit as well as housing market and local government activity are raising concerns about financial stability. A scenario in the Outlook shows that a 2-percentage point decline in the growth of Chinese domestic demand would lower global GDP by 0.3 percent per year.”

 

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