“World crude oil prices initially fell following the June 23 announcement by the International Energy Agency (IEA) that its member countries would release up to 60 million barrels from strategic reserves but then rose above the pre-announcement levels in late June and early July. Attributing observed price changes since June 23 to the IEA announcement is difficult because other drivers, including changing expectations of world economic and crude oil consumption growth, uncertainty over oil supply disruptions, estimates of Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) spare production capacity, and other physical and financial factors are continually affecting oil prices. Although the IEA release will provide some additional supply, EIA expects oil markets to tighten through 2012. Given projected world oil demand growth and slowing growth in supply from countries that are not members of OPEC, the projected U.S. average refiner acquisition cost of crude oil rises from $102 per barrel in 2011 to $108 per barrel in 2012, about $1 per barrel below last month’s Outlook.”
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