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Kaiser Commission on Medicaid and the Uninsured

House Budget Plan: State-By-State Impact of Changes in Medicaid Financing: “This analysis projects the state-by-state impact of converting Medicaid into a block grant and eliminating the planned expansion of the program by repealing the health reform law, as called for under the House Budget Plan. It finds that the plan would trigger major reductions in Medicaid program spending that could result in significant enrollment decreases compared to current projections, a shift with big implications for states, hospitals and tens of millions of low-income Americans who likely would wind up uninsured. Projected federal spending on Medicaid for the 10-year period 2012 to 2021 would fall by $1.4 trillion, a 34 percent decline. By 2021, states would receive $243 billion less annually in federal Medicaid money than they would under current law, a 44 percent reduction. The effect on enrollment in state Medicaid programs could vary widely. By 2021, between 31 million and 44 million fewer people nationally would have Medicaid coverage under the House Budget Plan relative to expected enrollment under current law, the analysis finds, examining three possible scenarios using different assumptions about how states might respond to lower federal funding. Most of those people, given their low incomes and few options for other coverage, would end up uninsured.”

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