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Economic Projections from January 2011 Federal Open Market Committee Meeting

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Economic Projections from the January FOMC Meeting, Brent Meyer – Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

  • “Most participants continued to judge the uncertainty accompanying their projections for all forecasted variables as “elevated” when compared to historical norms. However, the Committee did change its assessment of the risks to its growth and inflation projections. The majority of Committee members now judge the risks to be “balanced,” whereas in November the majority weighted risks to the “downside.” On the upside for growth, some of the participants noted that the recent strength in aggregate spending data might be evidence that a sharper recovery was taking shape (one typical of those that usually follow a deep recession). On the downside, other Committee members noted the continued fragility of the housing market may still adversely affect household spending patterns and bank lending. As for the inflation risks, several participants put a lower probability on further disinflation or outright deflation outcomes, leading to their view of a more balanced distribution of risks.”
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