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CBO's Economic Forecasting Record: 2010 Update

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CBO’s Economic Forecasting Record: 2010 Update, July 2010

  • “Since publishing its first macroeconomic forecast in 1976, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has compiled a forecasting track record that is comparable in quality with that of the Administration and that of the Blue Chip consensus. In particular, the accuracy of CBO’s two-year forecasts between 1982 and 2008 paralleled that of the forecasts published by the Blue Chip consensus and the Administration over the same period. The accuracy of CBO’s five-year
    projections also generally corresponded to that of other forecasters’. Comparing CBO’s forecasts with those of the Blue Chip consensus suggests that when the agency’s predictions of the economy’s performance missed by the largest margin, those errors probably reflected difficulties shared by other forecasters in predicting turning points in the business cycle.”
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