“Since publishing its first macroeconomic forecast in 1976, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has compiled a forecasting track record that is comparable in quality with that of the Administration and that of the Blue Chip consensus. In particular, the accuracy of CBOs two-year forecasts between 1982 and 2007 paralleled that of the forecasts published by the Blue Chip consensus and the Administration over the same period. The accuracy of CBOs five-year projections also generally corresponded to that of other forecasters, although the Administrations projections of types of income (such as wages and salaries and profits) as a share of national output had slightly smaller errors.”
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