“The extinction of polar bears by the end of the 21st century has been predicted and calls have been made to list them as a threatened species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. The decision on whether or not to list rests upon forecasts of what will happen to the bears over the 21st Century. Scientific research on forecasting, conducted since the 1930s, has led to an extensive set of principles-evidence-based proceduresthat describe which methods are appropriate under given conditions. The principles of forecasting have been published and are easily available. We assessed polar bear population forecasts in light of these scientific principles..In summary, experts forecasts that are unaided by evidence-based forecasting procedures, should not be used for forecasting in this situation. The decision of whether to list polar bears should be based on scientific forecasts of their population and forecasts of net benefits from feasible policies arising from listing polar bears. We recommend the use of the forecasting audits to ensure that the forecasts are properly done.”
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