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Pew Research: How Reliable Are the Early Presidential Polls?

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How Reliable Are the Early Presidential Polls? Poll Analysis – Pew Research Center for People and the Press, by Nilanthi Samaranayake and Scott Keeter:

  • “The flurry of candidate announcements in an open race has spurred media attention to the 2008 presidential contest even earlier in the electoral cycle than usual. But followers of early poll readings on the relative viability of declared candidates should bear in mind some caveats. Early frontrunners for the Republican nomination in most of the past seven open contests have gone on to win the nomination, but this year there is not one but two GOP frontrunners. On the Democratic side, even when there is a clear frontrunner as there is this year with Sen. Hillary Clinton, the early polls have been less reliable in predicting who will capture the nomination.”
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