Data is Plural: “Minneapolis Fed–affiliated economists Kathrin Ellieroth and Amanda Michaud have constructed a new dataset on monthly quits and layoffs. Using Current Population Survey (CPS) microdata going back to 1978, the dataset estimates the proportions of employees who, after quitting or being laid off, transition to unemployment versus exiting the labor market. In a recent article, Ellieroth and Michaud note that “CPS data offer a perspective not seen in the most-often-used series on quits and layoffs, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS),” featured in DIP 2022.09.21. “Whereas the JOLTS tracks what happens to a job, the CPS tracks what happens to people.” Analyzing it, they found “that increases in unemployment are typically not due to increases in layoffs; rather, they happen because laid-off workers are less likely to quickly find a new job, more likely to stay in the labor force, and thus more likely to join a growing pool of unemployed people hunting for work.” [h/t Alex Albright]

See also Pew – Most Americans Feel Good About Their Job Security but Not Their Pay – Only half of workers say they are extremely or very satisfied with their job overall. And a much smaller share are highly satisfied with their pay – 30%, down from 34% last year. Among workers who are not satisfied with their pay, the top reason given is that their wages haven’t kept up with increases in cost of living.