Rockefeller Institute of Government – SUNY – 2015 Was a Good Year for State Revenue Forecasters, But the Road Ahead Is Uncertain, Donald Boyd and Lucy Dadayan, December 2015.
“States must forecast revenue accurately to avoid disruption to their budgets. It is a difficult job — uncertainty about the economy, financial markets, and taxpayer behavior mean that estimates will never be completely on target. As we have documented in work supported by the Pew Charitable Trusts, forecasting errors were particularly large in and after the last two recessions as a result of increased volatility in taxes. However, recent years have been much better, and new data suggest that 2015 was a good year for state revenue forecasters.”