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Daily Archives: August 14, 2011

Where the Black Swans Hide & the 10 Best Days Myth

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Where the Black Swans Hide & the 10 Best Days Myth, Faber, Mebane T., (August 1, 2011). Cambria – Quantitative Research Monthly, August 2011.

  • “…we examine market outliers in financial markets. How much effect do these outliers have on long term performance? Can the investor prepare for these anomalies, or are they truly ‘black swans’ that cannot be managed? In this issue we examine numerous global financial markets on daily and monthly time frames. We find that these rare outliers have a massive impact on returns. However, these outliers tend to cluster and the majority of both good and bad outliers occur once markets have already been declining. We critique the “missing the 10-best-days” argument proffered by advocates of buy and hold investing, demonstrating that a significant majority of the 10 best days and the 10 worst days occur in declining markets. We continue to advocate that investors attempt to avoid declining markets where most of the volatility lies, and conclude that market timing and risk management is indeed possible, and beneficial to the investor.”
  • Related postings on financial system

    • The health risks and benefits of cycling in urban environments compared with car use: health impact assessment study

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    The health risks and benefits of cycling in urban environments compared with car use: health impact assessment study. BMJ 2011; 343:d4521 doi: 10.1136/bmj.d4521 (Published 4 August 2011) “Bicycle sharing schemes have become increasingly popular in countries throughout Europe, Asia, and America to encourage cycling as an alternative means of transport in urban areas. Large low… Continue Reading

    FOIA contacts across federal departments and agencies

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    “The Department of Justice has published a FOIA Contacts Listing on the FOIA.gov website. The listing was updated on August 1, 2011. The Developer Resources Page hosts a listing of FOIA contacts across federal departments and agencies.” [Michael Ravnitzky] Download the full FOIA contacts list, in xls – here (updated as of 8/01/2011) Continue Reading

    New Getty Search Gateway Allows Access to More Information More Quickly

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    News release: “The Getty recently unveiled a newly expanded search function on its website that will allow scholars, researchers, and the interested public to better access the Getty’s vast resources of information about the visual arts. The Getty Search Gateway, which is now available online, provides streamlined searches through the Museum’s collections and the Getty… Continue Reading

    USPS IG – Market Intelligence Audit Report

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    Market Intelligence Audit Report, August 10, 2011, Report Number MS-AR-11-005. “To enhance their understanding of their business environment, companies gather and analyze market, customer, and competitive intelligence. When acted upon, such information improves planning, decision-making, operations, and performance — all of which are essential to ensuring that products and services successfully meet customer needs. Focusing… Continue Reading

    Pew Findings: Search and email remain the top online activities

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    Search and email still top the list of most popular online activities – Two activities nearly universal among adult internet users, by Kristen Purcell “A May 2011 Pew Internet survey finds that 92% of online adults use search engines to find information on the Web, including 59% who do so on a typical day. This… Continue Reading

    White House Rural Council Report – Jobs and Economic Security For Rural America

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    Jobs and Economic Security For Rural America, White House Rural Council Report, August 2011 The vitality of rural America is critical to ensuring the strength of our economy, the affordability of our food, the independence of our energy supply, and the vibrancy of small communities. President Obama values rural America’s important contributions to our Nation’s… Continue Reading