Fedyk, Anastassia, Asymmetric Naivete: Beliefs About Self-Control (February 3, 2016). Available for download at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2727499

“The issue of people’s beliefs regarding their own and others’ present-bias is pivotal in studying interactions between multiple present-biased individuals. While several studies document individuals’ naivete about their own present-bias, beliefs regarding others remain unexplored. This paper investigates beliefs about own and others’ present-bias within the same experimental setting. Subjects engaged in a real effort task are asked to predict their own future behavior and the average behavior of the other subjects. Participants making predictions regarding their own decisions provide an estimate of self-awareness, while those making predictions regarding others provide beliefs about the present-bias of others. Consistent with the interpretation of naivete about own present-bias as driven by overconfidence, I document a wedge in beliefs regarding self and others: subjects display virtually no awareness of their own present-bias, but predict significant present-bias in others.”