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Daily Archives: March 27, 2023

New report from OpenAI finds that higher-income jobs are most exposed to GPT

Working Paper – GPTs are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of Large Language Models, March 27, 2023. “We investigate the potential implications of large language models (LLMs), such as Generative Pre- trained Transformers (GPTs), on the U.S. labor market, focusing on the increased capabilities arising from LLM-powered software compared to LLMs on their own. Using a new rubric, we assess occupations based on their alignment with LLM capabilities, integrating both human expertise and GPT-4 classifications. Our findings reveal that around 80% of the U.S. workforce could have at least 10% of their work tasks affected by the introduction of LLMs, while approximately 19% of workers may see at least 50% of their tasks impacted. We do not make predictions about the development or adoption timeline of such LLMs. The projected effects span all wage levels, with higher-income jobs potentially facing greater exposure to LLM capabilities and LLM-powered software. Significantly, these impacts are not restricted to industries with higher recent productivity growth. Our analysis suggests that, with access to an LLM, about 15% of all worker tasks in the US could be completed significantly faster at the same level of quality. When incorporating software and tooling built on top of LLMs, this share increases to between 47 and 56% of all tasks. This finding implies that LLM-powered software will have a substantial effect on scaling the economic impacts of the underlying models. We conclude that LLMs such as GPTs exhibit traits of general-purpose technologies, indicating that they could have considerable economic, social, and policy implications.”

The Nightmare of AI-Powered Gmail Has Arrived

New York Mag – The Intelligencer: “With the release of tools like DALL-E and ChatGPT, Google — once the presumptive industry leader in artificial-intelligence research — suddenly finds itself playing catch-up. The rise of OpenAI was reportedly a “code red” emergency at the company, which had quietly been working on, but not really releasing, similar… Continue Reading

Hello Dolly: Democratizing the magic of ChatGPT with open models

databricks: “We show that anyone can take a dated off-the-shelf open source large language model (LLM) and give it magical ChatGPT-like instruction following ability by training it in 30 minutes on one machine, using high-quality training data. Surprisingly, instruction-following does not seem to require the latest or largest models: our model is only 6 billion… Continue Reading

Loose Monetary Policy and Financial Instability

Via NBER – Loose Monetary Policy and Financial Instability. Maximilian Grimm, Òscar Jordà, Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor “Do periods of persistently loose monetary policy increase financial fragility and the likelihood of a financial crisis? This is a central question for policymakers, yet the literature does not provide systematic empirical evidence about this link… Continue Reading

Nearly 200 Other Banks Vulnerable To SVB-Style Collapse

Jiang, Erica Xuewei and Matvos, Gregor and Piskorski, Tomasz and Seru, Amit, Monetary Tightening and U.S. Bank Fragility in 2023: Mark-to-Market Losses and Uninsured Depositor Runs? (March 13, 2023). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4387676 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4387676 “We analyze U.S. banks’ asset exposure to a recent rise in the interest rates with implications for financial stability. The… Continue Reading

Visualizing Political Bias in Bicameral Legislatures

The Economist – See the visualization here: “Left-of-centre Americans often bemoan their country’s Senate, in which each state gets two seats regardless of population. This has always given the least populous states extra sway in the upper chamber of Congress. But in recent years, smaller states have become more Republican, and Democrats have called for… Continue Reading